Typical sales ratios for games that actually make use of a VR PC like Green Hell VR are more 4:1, which makes sense given that we see ~2mn monthly Steam VR users, and monthly Quest use so far peaked at ~6.5mn, with some of these Quest users actually also making up 50% of the Steam VR users. On Steam it has ~6.5K ratings, so it is more like ~2.5-3:1 Quest:PCVR. That ratio probably has gotten a lot worse with now ~20K ratings for Quest vs. And in early 2021 Skydance didn’t say that the Quest version of Saints & Sinners sold 10x as many as the PCVR version, instead it sold 10x as many as the (not cross-buy) Rift/Rift S version on the Oculus store. Ultrawings 2 was also the only “realistic” flight-sim on Quest, while PCVR had X-Plane, MSFS etc. There are several games that sold 10x as many on Quest as on PCVR, for example Ultrawings 2, but these are usually games featuring simpler graphics that PCVR users aren’t fond of. The typical sales ratio between Quest and PCVR isn’t as bad though. And even the flagship projects tend to be mostly slices of the worlds from established franchises with reduced scope like Assassin’s Creed Nexus, with the 2021 Quest RE4 being the exception due to being the port of a 2011 HD remaster of a 2005 GameCube title. Without something changing dramatically, the most likely options will remain indie titles, the occasional AA venture, VR modes for existing games and very rare AAA flagship projects like HL:A, HCotM or Quest RE4 with a significant strategic investment from the platform owner. And even with this overly optimistic scenario, the resulting numbers aren’t anywhere they’d need to be for a AAA to consider releasing one of their usual games for VR.
The 2mn is basically the ceiling, a very unlikely best-case scenario that I use to not immediately get shot down for “being too pessimistic”. I agree, these numbers are gross overestimations. That’s the reason for the “sells to (much) less than 50%/would sell less than 2mn”.
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